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Friday, December 13, 2002 -- Two miles beneath the waves of the Atlantic Ocean, off Spain's west coast, the sunken tanker Prestige continues to leak 32,000 gallons of oil a day, a month after it broke in two and descended to the ocean floor.

Now European officials must decide whether it's riskier to let about 16 million gallons stay there and seep out gradually, or to try to remove it, said Malcolm L. Spaulding, a professor of ocean engineering at the University of Rhode Island and an oil-spill specialist.

"If you let this thing go and it continues to leak, what will the effect be on the coastline?" Spaulding asked Friday, as he presented his analysis to the Spanish television network, TVE, for a special on the tanker crisis that aired in Spain December 14th. "You need to compare the cleanup cost and environmental damage to the cost of removing the oil and possibly spilling more."

The old tanker was carrying about 20 million gallons of oil. It spilled 4 million gallons between Nov. 13, when it started to leak, and Nov. 19, when it sank after Spanish officials ordered it moved 200 kilometers from the coast.

The oil spill has contaminated Spain's northwestern coast and part of Portugal's northern coast, has forced fishermen to abandon their livelihood and killed thousands of birds.

Some have estimated it will cost about $50 million to clean -- a figure Spaulding said may be too low.

But now, European government officials are focused on what's happening on the ocean floor.

Deborah French-McCay from Applied Science Associates, using a specially designed computer program (SIMAP), simulated what would happen if the broken tanker continues to hemorrhage oil.

Because oil is more buoyant than sea water, it's being pulled upward through 15 cracks in the tanker's hull, like strands of taffy, Spaulding said.

Oil is heated to 122 degrees Fahrenheit when it's poured into tankers, so much of the oil trapped in several compartments is still warm.

When it hits water on the ocean floor that is just above freezing, at 37 degrees Fahrenheit, its consistency changes from liquid to taffy-like. It breaks into tar-like balls when it hits the ocean surface and washes up along Spain's rocky coastline, Spaulding said.

A key factor is estimating how long it will take for all the oil to cool down to 42 degrees Fahrenheit. When that happens, the oil becomes so sluggish and viscous, it will no longer escape through the cracks, Spaulding said.

But so far, no one has calculated the cooling time, Spaulding said.

Leaking will probably decrease as the oil cools, and currents are gentle enough in the area that they shouldn't disturb the broken tanker.

Most of the leaked oil would drift to the northwest corner of Spain's Galicia region, but would largely avoid the coast of Portugal, Spaulding said.

But a more detailed analysis of wind, weather and seasonal conditions would be needed to determine how much of the leaked oil would wash to shore, Spaulding said.

At this point, the oil compartments probably won't collapse and the lack of oxygen at the ocean floor means the tanker shouldn't corrode, Spaulding said.

The good news, if there is any, is that this batch of oil was destined for power plants, so most contaminants had been removed, making it less toxic than other kinds of oil products, said French-McCay.

That means fish and shellfish will not be contaminated by the oil spill.

"But there's still an emotional problem, because people won't want to eat Spanish fish, because of the association," French-McCay said.

A more troubling topic is whether Spanish officials were correct in ordering the tanker out to sea, potentially exposing a wider swathe of coastline to the spill, said Daniel Peral, TVE's New York bureau chief.

"That's the political question in Spain right now -- who made that decision," Peral said.

Pulling a leaking vessel into port presents potential problems, such as more intense ecological devastation, but pulling a damaged ship out to sea has drawbacks also, French-McCay said.

"It's a trade-off of risks, but either way it's a tough decision," she said.

Hopefully, the tanker crisis will stimulate more discussion about contingency plans, in the event of another disaster, as well as increase international pressure to use only double-hold tankers, which are more expensive but much safer, French-McCay said.